A random effects epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

X - 2 WERNER AND SORNETTE : MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES AND FORECASTS the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clust...

On the relationship between lower magnitude thresholds and bias 2 in epidemic ‐ type aftershock sequence parameter estimates

5 [1] Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial‐temporal point process 6 models such as the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). 7 Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for 8 earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically 9 removed prior to fitting a point process mode...

Implications of an inverse branching aftershock sequence model.

The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model is a self-similar statistical model for earthquake aftershock sequences. A prescribed parent earthquake generates a first generation of daughter aftershocks. The magnitudes and times of occurrence of the daughters are obtained from statistical distributions. The first generation daughter aftershocks then become parent earthquakes that generate seco...

California aftershock model uncertainties.

Threshold Parameter for a Random Graph Epidemic Model

Let us consider a stochastic SIR epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within households and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically motivated branching process approximations are described. In case the number of initially infective individuals stays small, a branching process approximation for the numbe...